Will bonds recover in 2024?
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
We believe the municipal market is poised for improvement in 2024. The Fed's anticipated easing this year should bolster demand for municipal bonds. If investor sentiment shifts positively, as we expect, strengthening demand could absorb secondary market supply and act as a catalyst for spread tightening.
Moore expects that prices of high-quality corporate bonds will recover strongly once the economy and inflation slow, and the Fed begins cutting rates to stimulate growth.
Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.
As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.
A slight acceleration for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025—will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025.
After two tumultuous years, we expect a municipal market recovery in 2024 and we believe municipal bond mutual funds will outperform other investment vehicles.
For those investors interested in bonds, but uncertain about the timing and impact of potential rate cuts, it's good to consider that the CME Group's survey of interest rate traders sees little likelihood of a rate cut before the 3rd quarter of 2024.
The United States 10 Years Government Bond Yield is expected to be 4.49% by the end of September 2024.
What will happen to bonds in 2024?
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
| From and Including | Up To But Not Including | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year - 6 months | 1 year - 10 months | 5-1/8% |
| 1 year - 10 months | 2 years - 2 months | 5% |
| 2 years - 2 months | 2 years - 6 months | 4-7/8% |
| 2 years - 6 months | 3 years - 0 months | 4-3/4% |
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
| Rank | Fund | Yield |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (VWEHX) | 6.40% |
| 2 | T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (PRHYX) | 7.02% |
| 3 | PGIM High Yield Fund Class A (PBHAX) | 7.22% |
| 4 | Fidelity Capital & Income Fund (fa*gIX) | 6.16% |
Holding bonds vs. trading bonds
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
Moving 401(k) assets into bonds could make sense if you're closer to retirement age or you're generally a more conservative investor overall. However, doing so could potentially cost you growth in your portfolio over time.
Diversify. When dividend reinvestment is included, S&P increased by 26.44% in 2024, adding more than 2% to the market return for the year. No matter how optimistic you may be going forward, another decline in 2023 can't be ruled out. Dividends are one of the best protections against volatility in the stock market.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
"2024 is bound to be a better year for homebuyers, if only because of how terrible 2023 was," says John Graff, CEO at Ashby & Graff Real Estate. Graff anticipates falling interest rates and increasing inventory could result in more opportunities for homebuyers in the months ahead.
How high will the stock market be by 2025?
Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
I bonds are a low-risk investment option and a great way to diversify your investment portfolio and hedge against inflation. The current I bond rate is 5.27% for bonds issued between November 1, 2023, and April 30, 2024.
We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate.
Long-term bonds have an average maturity of 10 years or longer, making them a better choice when interest rates are falling, as they're expected to do in 2024.
