What are the Risks of Investing in Treasury Bonds? (2024)

Financial analysts and the financial media often refer to U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) as risk-free investments. And it's true. The United States government has never defaulted on a debt or missed a payment on a debt. You would have to envision the utter collapse of the government to find a scenario that would involve losing any of the principal invested in a T-bond.

Key Takeaways

  • There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in T-bonds.
  • There is a risk that you could have earned better money elsewhere.
  • Investing decisions are always a tradeoff between risk and reward.

The crucial word above is "principal." In investing, the safest investments have the lowest returns. And accepting a low return is in itself a risky decision.

Understanding U.S. Treasury Bond Risk

Most investments in debt, from corporate bonds to mortgage-backed securities, carry some degree of default risk. The investor accepts the risk that the borrower will be unable to keep up the interest payments or return the principal invested.

In the event of bankruptcy, bondholders are first in line before other investors, but that's no guarantee of full repayment.

This is not true for T-bonds, which are backed by "the full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. That means the Federal Reserve. Investors know that the Treasury Department will pay them back even if the Fed's balance sheet is ugly.

So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.

Inflation

Every economy experiences inflation from time to time, to one degree or another. T-bonds have a low yield, or return on investment. A little bit of inflation can erase that return, and a little more can effectively eat into your savings.

That is, an investment of $1,000 in a T-bond for one year at 1% interest would get you $1,010. But if inflation was 2%, the initial investment when it is returned will have the buying power of a little under $990.

Interest Rate Risk

When interest rates rise, the market value of debt securities tends to drop. This makes it difficult for the bond investor to sell a T-bond without losing on the investment.

Opportunity Costs

All financial decisions, even T-bond investments, carry opportunity costs.

An investor who purchases a $1,000 T-bond loses the chance to invest or spend that $1,000 elsewhere. The investor might have been better off putting $1,000 into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offered a greater potential for return along with a greater risk of principal loss. For that matter, the investor might have bought a new laptop for $1,000. If inflation continues at its current pace, that model will cost $1,025 a year from now.

What are the Risks of Investing in Treasury Bonds? (2024)

FAQs

What are the Risks of Investing in Treasury Bonds? ›

So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.

What are the risks of investing in Treasury bonds? ›

But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered. If you're interested in investing in Treasury bonds or have other questions about your portfolio, consider speaking with a financial advisor.

What are the risks associated with investing in bonds? ›

Bonds are considered as a safe investment & also come with some risks which are Default Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Inflation Risk, Reinvestment Risk, Liquidity Risk, and Call Risk. Investors who like to take risks tend to make more money, but they might feel worried when the stock market goes down.

What are the two greatest risks for the owners of Treasury securities? ›

Like all guaranteed financial instruments, Treasuries are vulnerable to both inflation and changes in interest rates.

Are Treasury bonds a good investment? ›

While Treasury bonds don't have a serious risk that the government won't pay you back, they do have two other risks that are typical of bonds: inflation risk and interest rate risk. While Treasury bonds are relatively safe investments, one key risk is that inflation will erode your returns over the years.

What are the key risks in the Treasury? ›

Within Corporate Treasury, the two most prominent areas of Risk Management are FX (foreign exchange) risk, which concerns foreign currency, and interest rate risk, which concerns the cost of borrowing. These two areas do not comprise the entire field of Risk Management, however.

What are the disadvantages of Treasury I bonds? ›

One main limitation is that these bonds cannot be bought or sold on the secondary market. This means that once you purchase an I Bond, you are committed to holding it until maturity or redeeming it with the Treasury, subject to certain restrictions. Another potential downside is the purchase limit.

What is the major disadvantage of investing in bonds? ›

Historically, bonds have provided lower long-term returns than stocks. Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. Long-term bonds, especially, suffer from price fluctuations as interest rates rise and fall.

What is the downside risk of a bond? ›

Downside risk is the potential for your investments to lose value in the short term. History shows that stock and bond markets generate positive results over time, but certain events can cause markets or specific investments you hold to drop in value.

Do bonds have high-risk? ›

Less volatile price. Bonds tend to be much less volatile than stocks and move in response to a number of factors such as interest rates (more below). Less risky than stocks. Bonds are less risky than stocks, and are among the best low-risk investments.

What happens to treasury bonds if the government defaults? ›

Investors might panic, leading to a sell-off in Treasury securities, which are typically considered one of the safest assets. This could also result in a sharp decline in bond prices and a spike in interest rates, affecting borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers.

What is a major disadvantage of purchasing US treasury bonds? ›

So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.

Can you lose money on bonds if held to maturity? ›

After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.

Are Treasury bonds 100% safe? ›

You'll then be repaid over time with interest, which is paid at a fixed rate every six months until the bond matures. Treasury bonds are considered safer than corporate bonds—you're practically guaranteed not to lose money—but there are other potential risks to be aware of.

Are Treasury bonds safer than banks? ›

U.S. government securities—such as Treasury notes, bills, and bonds—have historically been considered extremely safe because the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. Treasury securities may pay interest at higher rates than savings accounts, although it depends on the security's duration.

Are Treasury bonds a good investment for retirees? ›

Pros of Investing in T-Bonds

Those nearing retirement might choose to allocate more of their portfolio to bonds to minimize their exposure to risk, and all investors can use them to keep a portion of their portfolio risk-free. Predictable returns: T-bonds pay regular returns on a twice-yearly frequency.

What is the problem with Treasury bonds? ›

So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.

Is it safe to put money in Treasury bonds? ›

Treasury securities are considered a safe and secure investment option because the full faith and credit of the U.S. government guarantees that interest and principal payments will be paid on time. Also, most Treasury securities are liquid, which means they can easily be sold for cash.

What is the disadvantage of investing in treasury bills? ›

This means that investors looking for high returns may not find T-bills attractive. Since T-bills have fixed interest rates, inflation can erode the purchasing power of the returns earned from these investments. This means that investors may need help to keep up with inflation, resulting in a decline in real returns.

How much is a $100 savings bond worth after 30 years? ›

How to get the most value from your savings bonds
Face ValuePurchase Amount30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990)
$50 Bond$100$207.36
$100 Bond$200$414.72
$500 Bond$400$1,036.80
$1,000 Bond$800$2,073.60
May 7, 2024

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