Applying the 4% Rule. We are selling! — The Happy Saver (2024)

19 May, 2024

A year ago, I published a blog post titled “We Sold Some Investments: Putting our version of the 4% Rule to the test!” To cut to the chase, we’ve done it again.

Having read about The 4% Rule for years and met many people who had retired early and were using it, back in 2023, we decided that we were not yet ready to retire, but pulling some income off our investments would improve our lives at that time. Finding more available cash without working more hours would allow us to do more of the things we wanted to do.

Reading Die With Zero by Bill Perkins and listening to podcasts like Madfientist cemented our view that life is for living. We didn’t want to put things off until retirement when it was within our control to find the money and the time to do them today. Again, I strongly encourage you to read this book as I’m yet to meet a person who has not been changed by it.

For those new to my blog, I’ll quickly fill you in:

Jonny and I are now 50 and 51, and we have a 16-year-old daughter. For the last decade, more or less, we have been systematically stuffing money into ETF investments and our KiwiSaver and basically managing our money well. We both work part-time PAYE jobs and work on The Happy Saver, so we have a lot of unpaid free time and use it well. I can’t say I’ve ever been bored; there is simply too much to do, try, think about, and enjoy.

Via my blog and podcast, and because I’m generally curious, I’m always finding out what other people do with their time and pūtea and what advice they have for me. Those who have bought back their time, giving them the freedom to work less and enjoy life more, really stand out to me. Those people are happy. So, Jonny and I are on a path to financial independence and the ability to retire from all paid work in our early 50s, and we intend to pull income off our investments to allow us to do this.

Since I wrote “We Sold Some Investments: Putting our version of the 4% Rule to the test!” a year ago, we have continued to focus on the things we know are highly effective in getting ahead financially:

  1. Track your net worth monthly to see if you are going forward or backward.

  2. Live on less than you earn; if you can’t do that, spend less or earn more. Budget.

  3. Have money set aside for when trouble strikes (which it absolutely will).

  4. Get out of debt and stay out of debt because it simplifies life.

  5. Continually invest a portion of your income in ETF/Index fund/Retirement fund.

  6. Look after your health. There is little fun to be had being wealthy yet unwell.

  7. Never stop learning.

Over the last 12 months, our household income has been trending up, and after-tax, we earn roughly $1,600 a week (it varies quite a lot). But it’s not what we make. It's what we do with it that counts. Despite some decent outgoings and the general rise in costs, we have continued to adjust for these changes, live on much less than we make, and invest the difference, typically about 30% of our take-home pay. We continue to invest in each of our high-growth, low-fee KiwiSaver funds and ETF funds (US 500 and, to a lesser degree, the NZ Top 50).

We have continued to use Sinking Funds to save up for known costs, and these bank accounts have proved their worth over the last 12 months as the cost of everything continues to increase. But, much like last year, saving up takes time, and having a cash injection to fast-forward our goals is a good idea.

Therefore, here we go again. We have once again sold a tiny sliver of our investments. When you hear talk of “passive income,” this is it—the ability to simply sell a portion of your investment with the click of a mouse.

May 1st 2023

Last May, we took the bold and somewhat unusual move, given that we are still working, of selling off a portion of our investments to fund our lifestyle. This is commonly referred to as The 4% Rule. The Trinity Study found that you can ‘safely’ sell off 4% of your total ETF investments once each year, and they ‘should’ last the next 30 years before you run out. I’ve now met dozens of people applying their version of this rule to their pūtea, which gives me the confidence to do the same.

On May 1st last year, the total value of our investments was $422,000. 4% would have been $16,880. We felt we didn’t need that much, so we sold just $12,000 (2.84%) worth of our US 500 ETF. So, we didn’t ‘quite’ apply the 4% Rule.

What did we do with the money?

We added it to our Travel Sinking Fund and then started booking trips! This bank account had already been receiving $100 a week, or $5,200 a year, as part of our everyday budgeting, meaning that with this lump sum injection of cash, we now had $17,200 to spend. And we almost did spend it all. In the last 12 months (May to April), we have had a brilliant lap around half of Te Waipounamu, the South Island. We had a trip to Ōtepoti Dunedin and an extended stay in Singapore. We also had many side trips to local places where, instead of dithering over the cost of something, we just booked it and enjoyed it. Plus, we put some deposits down on future trips. At the end of April 2024, $1,200 remained in that account.

A remarkable thing happened.

Despite taking money out of our investments and because we still made monthly deposits of about $2,000 into them, the balance has continued to grow. As of May 1, 2024, the combined balance of our US 500 and NZ 50 ETF funds, our KiwiSaver High Growth funds, and the little bit of gold we have left, the value of our investments is now $500,000.

Did you catch that?

One year down the track, despite us selling a small portion, our investments have grown by $78,000.

So this year, we are going for the entire 4% withdrawal.

In early May, I sold $20,000 of our investments and deposited the money back into our bank account, which we can now use however we want.

What did I sell this time?

This year, I decided to sell the final two ounces of gold we bought in about 2016. We bought gold for a bit of fun and before I understood the ease and performance of ETF investing, thanks largely to JL Collins, author of The Simple Path to Wealth. We purchased it for about $1,900 oz.

I sold two ounces for $3,700 oz each in early May. This means that we have made $1,800 per ounce over nine years. Would I invest in gold again? It was fun to own, but no. It’s never paid a dividend that I can reinvest, and it’s been a long wait for the value of it to increase. Plus, the difference between the price you pay to buy vs sell is significant, meaning you lose money on the transaction. But, on the upside, gold is easy to liquidate. By chance, the gold buyer passed through Alexandra right when I wanted to sell, so we met up and made the transaction.

The rest of the $20,000 came from selling some of our Smartshares US 500 (USF) ETF.

The money arrived in our bank account within two days of selling each asset.

Now that the money is in the bank, what’s next?

Given that our daughter is still in school, travel is still a little difficult because we are restricted to holiday dates. The fact that we didn’t actually manage to spend all of the Holiday Fund money last year means that we have set a total of $16,000 aside for travel and fun in the next 12 months.

We plan two trips; one is New Zealand-based, and the other is out of Australia (a cruise). We are full of different ideas that are still taking shape. The remaining $4,000 has been put into another sinking fund bank account and marked with a question mark. We are still determining what to use it for, but we are percolating a few ideas. Plus, with a lot of financial uncertainty nationwide, it's comforting to know that we have a little extra up our sleeve. I’ve long tried to ‘government proof’ our finances, and this will help make any decision any government chooses to make have little impact on us.

Thank goodness I don’t own an investment property!

I can’t help comparing ETF investing with property investment. I’d be foolish not to consider all options regarding growing our net worth. But as the years slowly tick by, I’m more grateful than ever that we have learned to invest our after-tax income into ETF share investments that track the direction of share markets instead of property. Share markets only go up over time as the thousands of companies that make up my ETF funds continue to produce goods and services that the world wants.

Jonny and I have share market assets worth $500,000 and just earned $20,000 from them. Despite this withdrawal, our assets will continue to grow. This is actual passive income. I don’t need an accountant, financial advisor, lawyer, or property manager to invest as we do. I don’t pay rates or insurance on my investments. There are no maintenance costs or tenant management. There is no debt to service, and I don’t have to worry about interest rates. I pay tax on the minimal amount of dividends I earn but no capital gains tax on the increase between what we paid for a share and what it is worth today. There is a two-day wait from deciding to liquidate my investment to having it in our bank account.

Occasionally, I’m accused of being anti-investment property ownership. But that is not the case at all. We need investment properties for those who choose to rent. I rented for years because it fit my life at the time, and I don’t rule out renting again one day. But as a way for me to grow our wealth, forget about it. I’m just not interested in this long-term, low-return, time-sink type of investment.

FIRE

Since I stumbled upon the concept of Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE) all those years ago and we began to grow our wealth slowly, it has freed up our time to live a decent life. Even with the cost of seemingly everything rising at the moment, we are still moving relentlessly towards our goal to cease all paid work and live off our investments. I’ve got to agree with JL Collins here: This is indeed the most simple path to wealth that I’ve come across.

You do you.

When I read, watch, or listen to content about personal finance, I find that many people either beat around the bush or are too absolute in their convictions about money. While the 4% Rule is based on sound mathematical research, our implementation of it is not. On paper, selling off $20,000 makes no sense because we still earn an income and are still investing in the very assets we are selling.

But in the real world, and away from the spreadsheet, selling off $20,000 makes perfect sense! It’s awesome.

I’ve long understood that ‘good’ personal finance allows for much flexibility. It’s a collaboration of many levers we can adjust as we go. Our overriding goal is to grow our ETF and KiwiSaver investments over time, and despite us selling off a tiny sliver of our investments, our wealth will continue to grow.

My final words are to encourage you to do you!

Don’t blindly follow the herd into property investment—and don’t blindly follow me either. Follow up on all the links I’ve shared above and then deeply dive into your finances. Your situation is unique, as is mine, and you have a lot more control over your future than you realise.

Happy Saving!

Ruth

Applying the 4% Rule. We are selling! — The Happy Saver (2024)

FAQs

Applying the 4% Rule. We are selling! — The Happy Saver? ›

This is commonly referred to as The 4% Rule. The Trinity Study found that you can 'safely' sell off 4% of your total ETF investments once each year, and they 'should' last the next 30 years before you run out.

How long will money last using the 4% rule? ›

The risk of running out of money is an important risk to manage. But, if you're already retired or older than 65, your planning time horizon may be different. The 4% rule, in other words, may not suit your situation. It includes a very high level of confidence that your portfolio will last for a 30-year period.

Does the 4 percent rule include social security? ›

The 4% rule and Social Security

You may be wondering if you should include your future Social Security income in this equation, and the simple answer is, you don't. Think of Social Security as added “security” to your retirement budget.

What is the 4% rule simple path to wealth? ›

When you can live on 4% of your investments per year, you are financially independent. There are many things money can buy, but the most valuable of all is freedom. Freedom to do what you want and to work for whom you respect. Try saving and investing 50% of your income.

Does the 4% rule work for early retirement? ›

The 4% rule says that retirees can withdraw 4% of their savings the first year and then adjust for inflation in future years if necessary to not run out of money in retirement. The 4% rule also assumes a 30-year retirement goal, so if you plan to retire earlier than that, this may not work for you.

How much money do you need to retire with $100,000 a year income? ›

So, if you're aiming for $100,000 a year in retirement and also receiving Social Security checks, you'd need to have this amount in your portfolio: age 62: $2.1 million. age 67: $1.9 million. age 70: $1.8 million.

How many people have $1,000,000 in retirement savings? ›

In fact, statistically, around 10% of retirees have $1 million or more in savings. The majority of retirees, however, have far less saved.

What is the $1000 a month rule for retirement? ›

One example is the $1,000/month rule. Created by Wes Moss, a Certified Financial Planner, this strategy helps individuals visualize how much savings they should have in retirement. According to Moss, you should plan to have $240,000 saved for every $1,000 of disposable income in retirement.

How much does Suze Orman say you need to retire? ›

Famed financial guru Suze Orman once told Paula Pant on the “Afford Anything” podcast that $2 million isn't enough to retire early on. So, how much does she say you will need to live comfortably in your golden years? She advocates saving significantly more — closer to $5 or $10 million to retire early.

How long will $500,000 last in retirement? ›

Summary. If you withdraw $20,000 from the age of 60, $500k will last for over 30 years. Retirement plans, annuities and Social Security benefits should all be considered when planning your future finances. You can retire at 50 with $500k, but it will take a lot of planning and some savvy decision-making.

What is the problem with the 4% rule? ›

Image source: Getty Images. But I have a couple of problems with the 4% rule. First, it assumes a fairly even mix of stocks and bonds, which not all retirees have. Also, it relies on fairly strong bond yields.

What is a safe withdrawal rate for age 70? ›

Late Retirement (age 70): If you're fortunate to have a robust portfolio in your late 70s and beyond, you might feel comfortable increasing your withdrawal rate. Our case study suggest that a pre-tax withdrawal rate of 5% or higher might be possible.

How successful is the 4% rule? ›

While following the 4% rule can make it more likely that your retirement savings will last the remainder of your life, it doesn't guarantee it. The rule is based on the past performance of the markets, so it doesn't necessarily predict the future.

How long will $1 million last in retirement? ›

Around the U.S., a $1 million nest egg can cover an average of 18.9 years worth of living expenses, GoBankingRates found. But where you retire can have a profound impact on how far your money goes, ranging from as a little as 10 years in Hawaii to more than than 20 years in more than a dozen states.

How long will $400,000 last in retirement? ›

This money will need to last around 40 years to comfortably ensure that you won't outlive your savings. This means you can probably boost your total withdrawals (principal and yield) to around $20,000 per year. This will give you a pre-tax income of almost $36,000 per year.

What is a good monthly retirement income? ›

More? Financial planners often recommend replacing about 80% of your pre-retirement income to sustain the same lifestyle after you retire. This means that, if you earn $100,000 per year, you'd aim for at least $80,000 of income (in today's dollars) in retirement.

What is the 4% rule for 30 years? ›

The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.

How long will $4 million last in retirement? ›

Looking to retire on $4 million? If you leave work at 61, the average retirement age as of the latest Gallup data, you'll have more than enough to see you through to a life expectancy of 90 or even 100. Across 29 years, $4 million could equate to a generous $11,494 a month.

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